South Africans: How Many Actually Emigrate Versus Those Who Just Consider It
How many people do you know who’ve said “we’re thinking about Canada” versus how many have actually filed anything? If your circle is like most South African social circles, the gap between the two is enormous — and it’s not just a feeling. It’s measurable. The honest answer to how many south africans actually emigrate versus consider it comes from Afrobarometer’s most recent national survey, and the numbers are more specific, and more interesting, than “everyone is leaving.”
What “considering” actually means
Afrobarometer’s Dispatch AD914, published December 2024, found that 27% of South Africans have considered emigrating, including 10% who say they’ve thought about it “a lot.” That’s the headline figure quoted everywhere. But “considered” is doing a lot of work in that sentence — the same afrobarometer emigration south africa statistics break that 27% down further, and the breakdown is where the real story sits.
Considering versus acting: the actual comparison
Of the South Africans who say they’ve considered emigrating, 66% aren’t currently making any plans at all. Another 20% intend to move within the next year or two but haven’t started preparing. Only 6% report taking concrete steps — things like applying for a visa. Run that 6% against the original 27%, and you land at roughly 1.6% of all South African adults who are genuinely acting on emigration at any given time. That’s the thinking about leaving south africa versus actually leaving gap, in one number.
Who’s in each group
The comparison gets more useful when you look at who’s doing the considering. Intent rises with income, education and employment — 42% among the wealthiest respondents, 38% among the most educated, 36% among those in full-time jobs, and 32% among youth. That’s a specific and slightly counter-intuitive pattern: it’s the employed and qualified who are weighing a move, not people without options at home. The popular image of emigration as an escape hatch for the desperate doesn’t match a south african emigration intent survey grounded in a nationally representative sample.
Why the gap matters
If you’re one of the people currently “considering,” the comparison is worth sitting with honestly. That specific gap between intention and action is less about pessimism and more about realistic expectations. The step from browsing to applying is where most people stall, not because the desire fades, but because the practical work (language tests, credential assessment, savings, actually choosing a pathway) is a different kind of effort than the conversation at a braai. Knowing that only a small slice of “considerers” ever cross into “concrete steps” isn’t a reason to feel behind; it’s a reasonably accurate description of where most people are, most of the time.
It’s also worth noting what this survey doesn’t tell you. It’s a snapshot of intent at one point in time, not a tracking study following the same people from “considering” to “applied” or “stayed put.” Someone counted among the 66% with no plans today could easily be in the 6% taking concrete steps a year from now, once a job offer, a language test score, or simply a decision gets made. The comparison is a description of a national mood, not a life sentence on where any one household ends up.
Reading a guide is usually the first concrete step for people who want to move from thinking to doing — ours cover what the practical pathways actually look like once you’re ready to go further than the conversation.